Analysis of lifetime death probabilities for major death causes among residents in China

Background: Cumulative mortality rate and cumulative risk are the two commonly used indicators at present to measure the significance and severity of diseases, while both of them have limitations and cannot represent the life-time death probability. This study aims to use a new indicator, lifetime death probability (LDP), to estimate the lifetime death probabilities for the top five leading causes of death in China and explore the regional differences and trends over time. Methods: The LDPs were calculated using a probability additive formula and an abridged life table. Results: In 2014, the LDPs for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, malignant tumor, respiratory disease, and injury and poisoning were 24.4%, 23.7%, 19.2%, 15.5%, and 5.3%, respectively. Compared to 2004-2005, the LDPs for heart disease and malignant tumor in 2014 increased 7.3% and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, the LDPs for cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases in 2014 were 1.0% and 3.9% respectively lower than that in 2004-2005. In the eastern region, malignant tumors had the highest LDP among the five diseases, while in the central and western regions they were ‘cerebrovascular and heat diseases’ and ‘respiratory diseases, and injury and poisoning’, respectively. Conclusions: LDP is an effective indicator for comparing health outcomes, which can be applied in future disease surveillance. Heart disease and cancer are the two major lifetime risks of death in China, but with regional differences. There is a need to take targeted preventive measures to prevent diseases in different regions.