Examining Bitcoin and Economic Determinants: An Evolutionary Perspective

After Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin in 2008 as an alternative online payment system, it became an appealing investment vehicle and an attractive area of study for many researchers. Although much research has been done on the valuation of Bitcoin, comparatively little treatment has been spent on Bitcoin's relationship to established economic indicators, at least in IS research. This study examines Bitcoin across its history using a time-series structural break analysis to differentiate five distinct periods within Bitcoin's evolution. Data obtained includes the open-high-low-close and volume Bitcoin trading data by the minute from October 15, 2010 until January 1, 2020. Within each period, we examine Bitcoin's closing price in relation to an established set of economic indicators that encompass economic health, long-term economic stability, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. We find that Bitcoin has matured from a speculative trading mechanism to an independent investment instrument that is responsive to underlying macroeconomic factors.