Proximity to the U.S./Mexico border, alcohol outlet density and population-based sociodemographic correlates of spatially aggregated violent crimes in California

This paper examines trends and population-level correlates of violent crime rates from 2005 to 2017 in California, including proximity to the U.S./Mexico border and alcohol outlet density. Crime data come from the Crimes and Clearances report compiled by the California Department of Justice. These and U.S. Census data were aggregated at the level of 499 Law Enforcement Reporting Areas (LERA) that contributed to the report. Reported crime rates were related to area characteristics using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space-time models. Violent crime rates declined 16% from 2005 to 2017. Crime rates were positively related to distance to the border, total alcohol outlet density, percent outlets that are bars and pubs, percent population Black, percent population Hispanic, percent population 30–49 years of age, percent population U.S. born, percent 150% below federal poverty level, percent high school graduate, and percent houses vacant. Violent crimes were negatively related to percent total outlets that are off-premise, percent population male, percent with higher than 2017 adjusted median income, percent owner occupied houses, and lower population density. In conclusion, several population level characteristics including ethnic composition, community socioeconomic stability, and alcohol availability are associated with violent crime rates. Contrary to public perceptions, violent crime rates increase as distance to the Mexico border increases.