Risk Assessment Of Smart Grids Under Cyber-Physical Attacks Using Bayesian Networks

Different technologies are used to manage the integration of smart devices with the conventional power grid. This new integration allows more control and monitoring capabilities for stakeholders and customers. However, it also makes the smart grid susceptible to new classes of cyber-physical threats that have to be analysed, evaluated and mitigated. In this paper, we evaluate the risk of manipulating circuit breakers that connect a power generator to the smart grid. Our main contribution is performing risk assessment of the grid by combining the vulnerabilities of its cyber domain and the transient stability analysis of its physical domain. First, we estimate the probability of compromising the energy control centre (ECC) using a Bayesian network. The ECC can be exploited to manipulate circuit breakers. Second, we analyse the impact of manipulating circuit breakers in the IEEE 39-bus test system. Third, the probability of compromise and its impact are combined to quantify risk. Finally, we analyse the effect of integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems on the stability of the smart grid under the same attack scenarios. The results indicate that integrating smart grids with PV systems can improve resilience even if a cyber-attack succeeds.