Central tendency bias in belief elicitation
Journal of Economic Psychology(2020)
摘要
•We instruct subjects on the uniform distribution then elicit their subjective beliefs.•A majority of subjects report beliefs with a peak in the interior of the range.•This central tendency cannot be due to risk aversion, hedging, or inconsistencies.•Our findings can explain conservatism and overprecision in Bayesian updating.•Probabilistic forecasts might have less variance than the actual events.
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关键词
Belief elicitation,Quadratic scoring rule,Overprecision,Conservatism
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