Developing and Validating a Clinical Warfarin Dose-Initiation Model for Black-African Patients in South Africa and Uganda (vol 109, pg 1564, 2021)

Warfarin remains the oral anticoagulant of choice in sub- Saharan Africa. However, dosing is challenging due to a highly variable clinical response for a given dose. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical warfarin doseinitiation model in sub-Saharan Black-African patients. For the development cohort, we used data from 364 patients who were recruited from 8 outpatient clinics and hospital departments in Uganda and South Africa (June 2018-July 2019). Validation was undertaken using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC) dataset (690 black patients). Four predictors (age, weight, target International Normalized Ratio range, and HIV status) were included in the final model, which achieved mean absolute errors (MAEs; mean of absolute differences between true dose and dose predicted by the model) of 11.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10.4-12.8) and 12.5 (95% CI 11.613.4) mg/week in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Two other clinical models, IWPC and Gage, respectively, obtained MAEs of 12.5 (95% CI 11.3-13.7) and 12.7 (95% CI 11.5-13.8) mg/week in the development cohort, and 12.1 (95% CI 11.2-13.0) and 12.2 (95% CI 11.4-13.1) mg/week in the validation cohort. Compared with fixed dose- initiation, our model decreased the percentage of patients at high risk of suboptimal anticoagulation by 7.5% (1.5-13.7%) and 11.9% (7.1-16.8%) in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The clinical utility of this model will be tested in a prospective study.