Baseline circulating tumor cell (CTC) count as a prognostic marker of overall survival (OS) in metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC): Results from SWOG S1216, a phase III randomized trial of androgen deprivation plus orteronel (cyp17 inhibitor) or bicalutamide

5080 Background: Biomarkers are needed to predict clinical outcomes in mHSPC. We previously reported that baseline CTC counts in S1216 were prognostic of PSA response and disease progression ( ASCO 2020; CCR 2021). However, the trial’s primary overall survival (OS) endpoint was not yet mature at that time. Here we present the final results of S1216 using all available samples to assess the prognostic value of CTC counts for response, progression, OS, and treatment arm interactions. Methods: In S1216, peripheral blood was drawn with informed consent at registration (baseline) and at progression to metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). CTCs were enumerated on the FDA-cleared CellSearch platform (Menarini). CTC counts were evaluated for associations with 3 pre-specified trial endpoints: 7-month PSA (7mPSA) ≤ 0.2 ng/ml vs. 0.2–4.0 vs. > 4.0 using a generalized logit model; and progression-free survival (PFS) and OS using Cox regression. Results: From 2014 to 2021, 503 evaluable samples were collected at baseline and 93 at progression. Baseline CTC count was ≥5 in 11.9% of samples, 1-4 in 19.3%, and 0 in 66.8%. Comparing men with 0 vs. ≥5 CTCs at baseline, those with 0 CTCs were significantly more likely to attain a complete PSA response and had significantly lower risk of a PFS event and death after adjusting for clinical covariates (disease burden, bone metastases, age, race, alkaline phosphatase, hemoglobin, PSA, treatment arm). These associations were not modified by treatment arm. Progression CTCs <5 vs. ≥5 also were prognostic of OS (logrank p=0.001), consistent with prior findings in mCRPC. Same-patient CTC counts in matched baseline-progression pairs (n=61) were highly correlated (Spearman p<0.001). Conclusions: CTC count at the start of treatment for mHSPC was highly prognostic of PSA response, PFS, and OS; associations that held in both treatment arms. Moreover, baseline CTC count strongly correlated with progression count, suggesting that mild vs. aggressive disease phenotypes may persist from mHSPC to mCRPC. This evidence from a large prospective phase 3 trial suggests that baseline CTC count is a valuable prognostic marker in men initiating therapy for mHSPC, discriminating those likely to experience favorable vs. unfavorable response and OS. [Table: see text]