1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic.

W W Koczkodaj,M A Mansournia,W Pedrycz,A Wolny-Dominiak,P F Zabrodskii, D Strzaška, T Armstrong,A H Zolfaghari, M Debski,J Mazurek

Global Epidemiology（2020）

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摘要

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases.

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