Estimating population cause-specific mortality fractions in the Islamic Republic of Iran: validation of Murray’s Method

Background: Vital civil information is recorded in only 25% of middle-income countries. Aims: To estimate the number and causes of deaths expected in the population, using hospital mortality data and comparing them with data from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran. Methods: Hospital mortality data for 2011-2015 were extracted and were corrected qualitatively through reference to medical records. Using Murray's proposed method, an estimate of the expected deaths was obtained according to cause of death. Results: During 2011-2015, 12 704 deaths were recorded in the hospital and Murray's method estimated 28 768 deaths for the entire population. The most frequent cause of death was ischemic heart disease. The results were compared with data from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, which had a relative error of 6.9% and -13.5% respectively. The mortality rates registered by the Civil Registration Office were higher than those estimated in the present study. The mortality rates registered by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education were lower than those in the present study. Conclusions: Considering the importance of registering deaths, alternative methods, with efficiency and low cost, are needed to estimate the number and causes of death in a population.