A spatial risk assessment model framework for incursion of exotic animal disease into the European Union Member States

•Developed a quantitative model to assess the probability of entry of animal pathogens into the EU.•Routes of entry include live animals, trade of meat products and wild animal dispersion.•Utilises freely available global datasets on disease prevalence and trade.•Results compare African swine fever, Classical swine fever, Bluetongue and classical rabies.•Early warning system to highlight increase in probability due to changing trade or new outbreaks.