Production forecast of a multistage fractured horizontal well by an analytical method in shale gas reservoir

Industry benefits cannot be obtained from shale gas reservoir without stimulations, due to the ultra-low porosity and permeability of shale. A series of integrated technical measures have been developed for developing shale gas economically, such as horizontal wells and multistage hydraulic fracturing. Combining the above works, we can achieve higher productivity by enlarging stimulated reservoir volume (SRV) and linking fracture network in shale gas reservoirs. In this paper, a novel analytical mathematical model for production forecast of multistage horizontal well was developed based on the seepage theory of fractured well in the dual-medium gas reservoirs. In this model, multi-scale migration mechanism and the complicated morphology of hydraulic fractures in fractured shale gas reservoir were considered. It has been closely solved by the method of well test analysis and mathematical physics. To validate the accuracy of the model in this paper, a well from Changning–Weiyuan shale gas reservoir in China is taken as a real-case application. The calculation results of the model and the actual production data of the well are in good accordance. Meanwhile, the impacts of sensitive factors including desorption, Knudsen diffusion, slip flow, stress sensitivity of micro-fractures and high-velocity non-Darcy flow within hydraulic fractures on cumulative production were analyzed. At last, fracture morphology has been optimized through the model.