What can we learn about effectiveness of carbon reduction policies from interannual variability of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in East Asia

•Environmental policies detain interannual national CO2 emission growth in East Asia.•Regional CO2 emission decrease of 2011–2015 is driven by 12th Five Year Plan of China.•Without policies, fossil fuel CO2 emissions would be doubled by 2030 in East Asia.•If all policies are enacted, NDC goals are anyhow not satisfied by 2030 in East Asia.