Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

•We present a research agenda to enhance water quality modeling in the Anthropocene.•We review adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change.•We focus on eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics.•These dynamics act at different integration levels and different time scales.•Lake Victoria is an iconic example of an evolving novel social-ecological system.