Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability and its implications for Zika virus transmission in Myanmar

In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses have long been recognised as a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While certain countries in the region often serve as robust references for epidemiological data on particular mosquito-borne viruses, our current understanding of the epidemiological situation and transmission potential in Myanmar is still incomplete. Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a mosquito-borne viral suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic potential of such viruses in Myanmar, with the final goal of strengthening the country9s surveillance and public health capacity. While we validate this approach using historical dengue data, we focus on the implications for public health and control in the context of Zika virus (ZIKV). Results suggest that many districts of Myanmar are suited for ZIKV transmission, with peak transmission season between June and October, with higher potential in districts containing major urban centres and sharing international borders with epidemiologically important countries such as Thailand. Our research identifies key spatial heterogeneities and a temporal window of critical importance for ZIKV public health, surveillance and control in Myanmar.