COP21 climate negotiators’ responses to climate model forecasts
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE（2017）
摘要
Communicating climate science requires depicting uncertainty. This study shows that the tendency for COP21 policymakers to assign model forecasts less weight than their prior beliefs when making predictions is mitigated by presenting individual model forecasts with the statistical range.
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关键词
Social scientist/Social science,Geography/geographer,Sociology/sociologist,Environmental economics/Economist,Climate policy,Environmental policy,Global change,Earth system science,Climatologist,Climate science,Carbon management,Carbon markets,Energy,Renewables,Palaeoclimatology/Palaeoclimatologist,Climate modelling/modeller,Carbon cycle,Atmospheric scientist,Oceanography/marine science,Sustainability,Geophysicist/Geophysics,Biogeoscience/Biogeoscientist,Hydrology/Hydrogeology,Greenhouse gas verification,Ecologist/ecology,Conservation,Meteorology/meteorologist
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