Evaluation of bankruptcy risks by the method of fuzzy statistics

When controlling the financial assets in various spheres of the economy, the future is uncertain because the control is carried out in the conditions of uncertainty as regards a future state of the financial assets themselves and of their financial environment [1,2,8,10,12,16]. Therefore the problem of evaluating a bankruptcy risk extent is topical for all persons concerned about the state of the enterprise - owners, managers, investors, creditors, auditors and so on. Since any considered enterprise has a unique character, the statistical probability theory cannot be applied. It is necessary to put the accent not on predicting a bankruptcy but on recognizing the situation formed and evaluating a distance that separates the enterprise from the bankruptcy state. Naturally, a plausibility extent of this evaluation must also be indicated. Therefore a suitable mathematical tool for such studies is not statistics and the probability theory, but the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic [1,4,5,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16]. In this paper, mathematical model of bankruptcy risk prediction for an enterprise are considered, including the proposed variant of the application of the statistical theory of fuzzy classes.